The west is faced with uncomfortable conclusions

By Stefan Wagstyl

What is this report about? The inquiry was commissioned by the European Union in response to conflicting claims from Georgia and Russia about who started the fighting. It concludes that Georgia launched the conflict but Russia helped to provoke it by years of interference. So both sides were found guilty? Yes. But the verdict is much more damning for Tbilisi than for Moscow. First, Georgia invested much effort trying to prove Russia moved first, invading Georgian territory in South Ossetia in the days before Georgia shelled Tskhinvali, South Ossetia's capital. The report rejects this claim. Second, pro-western Georgia cares a lot about its reputation in the west. If this reputation is tarnished even more than it has been already, Tbilisi will suffer. Moscow is more used to being criticised in the west - over alleged atrocities in Chechnya, for example. Are the findings fair? The team had unrivalled access to Russian and Georgian officials but admits its conclusions cannot be the last word. Perhaps there is too much emphasis on August 8, the day the fighting began. But the report is pretty tough in branding as "irreconcilable with international law" Russia's claims to a privileged sphere of interest. That could have wide implications, for example, for Ukraine. The west gets a free ride? Not at all. Questions are raised about US policy in supplying arms to Georgia with the authors saying "military support must stay within the boundaries set by common sense and due diligence". The "international community", including the United Nations Security Council, is roundly criticised for doing too little to defuse tensions before the war. But Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, who whizzed around Europe last summer brokering a ceasefire, is praised by Heidi Tagliavini, the principal author. Could there be another war? Yes. The situation in Georgia today is as bad as if not worse than before. EU monitors, introduced under Mr Sarkozy's ceasefire deal, operate only in Georgia proper. International peace negotiations in Geneva have got nowhere. Russia sees getting rid of Mr Saakashvili as "unfinished business". But Georgia is a small, far-off country. Why does all this matter so much? The conflict exposed the inability of the west to restrain Russia when it comes to its dealings with its neighbours. So the war has enhanced Russia's influence in the region at the west's expense. This matters a lot to Russia's other neighbours. It also matters to the west because some of these neighbours are Nato allies (such as the Baltic states) and some are important oil and gas transit states.