The West Fears a Rash Adventure by Georgia

The West Fears a Rash Adventure by Georgia

‘The Economist’ Criticizes Okruashvili and Merabishvili’s ‘Hasty’ Activities

“This year's drama has included the Georgian government's operation last week to disarm a renegade warlord in the remote Kodori Gorge, the only bit of Abkhazia at least nominally controlled by the Tbilisi authorities. That alarmed the Abkhaz leadership. There has been a string of murky assassinations—perhaps political, perhaps criminal—in South Ossetia. The tension there, says Matthew Bryza, an American diplomat, is “worrisomely high”, not helped, perhaps, by the sacking last month of Georgy Khaindrava, Georgia's conflict-resolution minister. Both Zurab Noghaideli, the prime minister, and Mr Khaindrava himself say this was for unrelated reasons. But his was a (relatively) conciliatory voice. Others saw his departure as a victory for the “party of war” within the government."

The above extract was published in the 5th August issue of ‘The Economist’. Two articles in the issue focus on the Georgian situation, both of them showing the western countries’ concern about recent events in Georgia. Post ‘Rose Revolution’ progress is also highlighted - such as the fight against corruption and an increase in the state budget, but all of these efforts are hindered by both internal and external factors, which can only be overcome by Georgia itself.

It can be said without any hesitation, that the most critical stage of our history is occurring now. Russian Imperialism is set to invade Georgia for the third time: it is making all possible efforts to do so. Russia has a good chance of invading Georgia against the backdrop of the Israel-Lebanon war. International society has focused its attention on the Middle-East and the Caucasian problem has faded into the background – something that is all too good for our rivals.

Our experts state, it is important to act carefully and make the right decisions in this case; decisions that will not give Russia the chance to launch an attack. Mathew Bryza’s prompt and unexpected arrival in Georgia shows that the special operation in Kodori was unexpected for our friends.

Our experts agree that the Kvitsiani problem had to be settled, although they consider that Georgian Government overplayed Kvitsiani’s role. The danger lurking in the Kodori Gorge, spoken about in Tbilisi for ten days, was not in reality a big threat.

Kvitsiani’s behavior was viewed as the attempt of a psychologically unbalanced individual to attract attention, by making sensational and irresponsible statements. Kvitsiani’s efforts were doomed from the start, as according to local sources, he had no support at all for his ideas in the gorge.

“At the very least he could be viewed as a schizophrenic criminal who had no power to do anything. It is ridiculous to speak about a large-scale rebellion or serious damage to Georgian national interests” - states an expert on anti-terrorism working on Caucasian problems. As he sees it, the Kodori operation was a disproportionately large-scale response to a local problem that could have been solved in other ways more smoothly.

“It looked more like an attempt at making a film to illuminate the heroism of the Interior and Defense Ministries - although the director of the film will not be renowned for his dramatic mastership. Those hostile shots, shown to the audience, seem more fake than part of some well-directed plot.” To prove this, the expert points out that the soldiers’ behavior looks like clips made during the shooting of a feature film, as opposed to during genuine hostilities. “We believe the myth of Kvitsiani’s great military machine was fabricated and that the government took part in this as well.”

Therefore, rendering Kvitsiani harmless was neither a logistic nor military problem either inside or outside the Gorge. Instead, the disproportionate operation resulted in placing Georgia on the brink of war.

‘The Economist’ journal points out that today, the main aim of Georgia should be to avoid war and violence and not to repeat the tragic events of 1992-93:

“[A]n actual war in South Ossetia or Abkhazia would mean disaster for Georgia, and not only because it would probably lose. It would make solving the territorial disputes impossible. And it would wreck one of Mr Saakashvili's dearest aspirations, and the one the Russians most resent: his plan to take Georgia into NATO. All that should be clear, even to Georgia's young, hot-headed defense minister, Irakli Okruashvili.”

This influential journal has never appealed to Georgian Government with such an open text. This means that the tension must have increased greatly and thus every possibility must be used to defend both peace and human rights. Our western friends sound highly critical of our Defense and Interior Ministers.

In the sphere of defending human rights, the Georgian Government’s activities are compared to those made by leaders of authoritarian regimes. In his interview with the ‘The Wall Street Journal’, Mikheil Saakashvili named two leaders as his role models – Yugoslav Dictator, Joseph Broz Tito and Turkish Secular Autocrat, Cemal Atta-Turk. Neither of these leaders are considered beacons of democracy – particularly Broz Tito.

Georgian Prime-Minister, Zurab Noghaideli, insists in his interview with ‘The Economist’, that there will be ‘successful democracy’ in Georgia very soon. However, western specialists foresee bad trends. They highlight the illegal activities of Interior Ministry representatives -mainly focusing on the assassination of the young banker Sandro Girgvliani – and point out that under such governance, there is only a slim chance of joining the NATO. Everything however can be improved and it is not late. The advice is; do not to turn violence and war into universal notion of Georgia.

‘The Economist’ declares that despite Georgian government representatives continually painting an optimistic picture, there is still a great risk of a Russian invasion of Georgia. Saakashvili’s administration, in any case, assists in brining our neighbor closer to their aim.

“Some recent developments rather resemble those in another country to which Georgians do not much like to be compared: Mr Putin's Russia. Like other governments in the region, Mr Saakashvili's sometimes shows signs of a dangerous contempt for the people it governs.” - writes ‘The Economist’ in its 5th August issue.

Irakli Batiashvili’s detention was one more reason to compare Saakashvili’s authority to Putin’s one - it is a shame.

Yet, as our friends’ experts say, everything can be changed for the better: “Georgian civil society, which showed such great consciousness during the ‘Rose Revolution’, must not allow the escalation of violence, war and human rights violations. We believe that your society deserves a much better future than authoritarianism.”

I really hope our country will manage it. The situation is very tense - at least this is the estimation of one of the leading liberal publications; a publication whose conclusions are taken into consideration by the heads of the worlds leading nations.

Irakli Kakabadze - New York - 5 August 2006