The Country Needs New Roses

Peter Korig

Protest is rising against President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili a year after the war in the Caucasus. However, the opposition does not have any viable political plan.

At the first anniversary of the start of the war between Georgia and Russia, Rustaveli Avenue, a main street of the capital of Georgia, is open after it had been blocked by demonstrators for several months. The visit of Joseph Biden, Vice-President of the USA, to Georgia on July 23 should have become another opportunity for the opposition to express its protest against the President of Georgia and ask the USA for support. Tanks placed in the side streets and thousands of policemen armed with truncheons had to provide order in the case of real danger. 
 
Apparently the government did not consider it necessary to take this kind of safety measure on August 7. Otherwise,   on August 7 Rustaveli Avenue would not have become a large pedestrian zone where a partially solemn mood ruled. The exhibition “200 years of Russian Aggression against Georgia” expressed the main political message of the government of Georgia. The Exhibition presented conflicts in the region and demonstrated the continuous attempt of Russia to conquer the Caucasus. 

One could see a tank only in front of the Parliament of Georgia that day. On  Rustaveli Avenue  installation reminded of the events of April 9, 1989 when Soviet soldiers raided a demonstration of the Georgian independence movement with asphyxiating gas and spades which cost the lives of 19 people. A photo exhibition dedicated to the people who died during the war lastyear  in the Caucasus was held at Freedom Square. Here many people silently watched the developments of last year on a big screen at the square.

The developments were presented from the standpoint of the Georgian government i.e. Russia had started the war. A year after the war that ended with disastrous results for Georgia, the opposition blames the president of Georgia for losing Georgian territories. The view very common in the population is that the Georgian government fell into the trap of a Russian “provocation”. However, no one says publicly that the government must be held accountable for the start of the military operation and invasion into the separatist region of South Ossetia. And still the question remains, has Saakashvili overcome the post war crisis?

That the president did not resign after the war and most importantly after Georgia’s defeat can be explained by the history of Georgia.  The Saakashvili system stands on the theory of the “charismatic leader” that pushes the process of modernization in the post feudal clan society. The political project, the so-called Rose Revolution of 2003 that brought Saakashvili to power in fact was oriented toward restoring a state power monopoly and not toward creating a more democratic environment in the county as it was claiming to do. The claim was in contrast to the governance of previous president Eduard Shevardnadze. Because of the claim that he would create a more democratic environment Saakashvili had the support both from Georgian society that had been tormented by corruption and criminality and from the West, in particular from the USA that was interested in a stable Georgia –independent from Russia.

Germany is interested in the developments in Georgia because of the pipeline that crosses Georgia and transports oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey. The future interest of Germany in Georgia is connected with Nabucco gas pipeline which will cross Georgia avoiding Russia and transport gas from Caspian region to central Europe. However, Georgia’s geopolitically strategic location is probably more interesting for Germany than pipelines. Georgia is a country in the South Caucasus that borders NATO member Turkey and also Iran and Russia. Also Georgia is considered to be the most reliable partner of the West in the region. 

A large minority group of Azeris live in Iran and therefore, the Azeri government has couscous relations with Iran. Amenia prefers Russian patronage due to historic reasons. The situation is tensed between Azerbaijan and Armenia because of conflict over Nagorny Karabagh. Georgia that borders the Black Sea and is a bridge between Europe and Asia is also an important transit way for the provision of the western military forces in Afghanistan. 

The USA and Europe have completely different standpoint on the political stability in Georgia, even if the stability comes at the expense of democracy. More and more restrictions are imposed on press and radio, opposition activists are regularly arrested because of alleged weapon and drug possession, freedom of demonstration has been in fact abolished. Even though Biden criticized such tendencies during his visit to Georgia, he refused to support the opposition because the current political opposition failed to work out a large scaled political project on creating the system that would be different from the present system and would deserve support in the west for the change of the current government, unlike the period of the Rose Revolution. An opposition leader raised the issue of a civil war recently during the announcement of foundation of a new opposition alliance. He said armed should be avoided.

On the other hand, the fact that the government officially does not refuse on the possibility of using military force for "restoration the territorial integrity of Georgia” also threaten the stability in the Caucasus. Probably this is why the USA refused to grant military aid to Saakashvili during Jo Biden’s visit. Here becomes obvious that Saakashvili’s domination in foreign politics is based on the skillful usage of interests of the USA and the EU. He stated about the new wave of the Rose Revolution in the country. The MPs from the ruling country and ministers are planning to travel in the country during the summer vacations, meet the population and obtain information about their needs. The opposition does not step back as well. The opposition stated that it is planning to renew demonstrations in September.  
 
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Source:

http://foreignpress.ge/